纯苯&苯乙烯周报：地缘与制裁驱动，纯苯苯乙烯成本跟随-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sanctions and geopolitical factors drive up crude oil prices, causing styrene prices to rise with increasing costs. However, due to various negative factors, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4]. - The supply of pure benzene overseas has contracted, but weak demand restricts its price increase. The overall market is still affected by the sluggish downstream demand [37]. - The downstream of styrene is generally weak, with issues such as increased inventory and decreased production load in various sectors [51][60][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Styrene: Multiple factors affect styrene. Supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies are all bearish; inventory and valuation are neutral. The investment view is that it will fluctuate, and the trading strategy suggests taking a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Supply: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia remains severely negative, with the styrene - naphtha spread at about $253 and the styrene - benzene spread at $130 [4]. - Demand: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.9 tons compared to the previous period, a 10% increase. The supply side has increased maintenance, but the low operating rate of derivatives has led to a decline in demand [4]. - Inventory: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples increased by 0.6 tons compared to the previous period, a 3.05% increase. The commercial inventory increased by 0.1 tons, a 0.82% increase [4]. - Basis: The styrene basis is stable. There are concerns that overseas sanctions may reduce supply - side raw materials [4]. - Profit: The styrene - naphtha spread is about $253, and the combined spread of benzene - naphtha and PX - naphtha is about $364 [4]. - Valuation: The significant rebound in crude oil prices and the contraction of overseas pure benzene supply may disrupt styrene production due to raw material supply [4]. - Macro - policy: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - Crude Oil: The escalation of sanctions against Russia has led to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices [6]. - Styrene: The integrated profit of styrene has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [14][25]. - Pure Benzene: Overseas supply has contracted, but weak demand restricts the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - Styrene Downstream - ABS: The domestic ABS market is weak, with factors such as price, inventory, and production all showing signs of decline [51]. - PS: PS inventory has increased, and the production load has decreased [60]. - EPS: EPS inventory has accumulated [69]. - Pure Benzene Downstream - Aniline: Aniline profit has rebounded, and inventory has increased [79]. - Phenol: Phenol port inventory has further decreased [90]. - Adipic Acid: The production profit of adipic acid has not improved [101]. - Caprolactam: Caprolactam production remains stable, but the price has decreased [114]. - Household Appliances: The year - on - year demand for household appliance exports has decreased [124].