长江期货贵金属周报：中美局势缓和，价格延续调整-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. gold. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $4127 per ounce, down 3.3% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4250, and the lower support level is $4050 [6]. - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 4.4%, closing at $48.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $50 [9]. 2. Weekly View - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg. This week, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week. It is recommended to trade cautiously and within a range, with the reference operating range of SHFE gold contract 12 being 920 - 970, and that of SHFE silver contract 12 being 10900 - 11700 [13]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of indicators such as the euro - dollar exchange rate, pound - dollar exchange rate, U.S. dollar index, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectations (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), U.S. Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends through charts, but no specific analysis is provided [15][17][19][21]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The U.S. September CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the previous value was 2.9%. The U.S. September core CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the expected value was 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1% [23]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The plan for a summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin on Tuesday was shelved because Moscow rejected the proposal of an immediate cease - fire in Ukraine, casting a shadow over the negotiation prospects. A senior White House official said that "President Trump has no plans to meet with President Putin in the near future." Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had a "productive call" with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, but they decided not to hold a face - to - face meeting. Sources said that Russia restated the conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine in a private communication sent to the U.S. over the weekend, effectively negating Trump's current proposal. - The Sino - U.S. negotiations in Kuala Lumpur discussed important economic and trade issues of common concern such as the U.S. 301 measures against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and law - enforcement cooperation, agricultural product trade, and export controls. The two sides reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns, agreed to further determine specific details, and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [24]. 6. Inventory - The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg [13][29]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week [13][33]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (October 30) at 20:30, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. real GDP in the third quarter will be released. - On Friday (October 31) at 20:30, the annual rate of the U.S. September PCE price index and the monthly rate of U.S. September personal spending will be released [35].