尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current futures market is mainly driven by short - sellers taking profit. It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current valuation of urea is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If the price continues to decline, it may lead to a further decrease in the upstream production willingness and accelerate the enterprise self - clearing. In the short term, the upward driving force of urea is insufficient, and the supply and inventory pressure are relatively large. The downstream mainly replenishes inventory cautiously at low prices. The possible future driving forces are the renovation expectation of old chemical plants on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - UR01: On October 24, it was 1642.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan from October 23. UR05 was 1719.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan (0.53%). UR09 was 1748.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.46%) [1] Domestic Spot Price - In Shandong, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton on October 24, up 20.00 yuan (1.29%) from October 23. In Shanxi, it was 1500.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. In Henan, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. In Hebei, it was 1600.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.63%). In Northeast China, it was unchanged at 1600.00 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.29%) [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 149.00 yuan/ton on October 24, up 11.00 yuan from October 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 77.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1] Upstream Cost (Anthracite Price) - In Henan, it was 1030.00 yuan/ton on both October 24 and 23. In Shanxi, it was 880.00 yuan/ton on both days, with no change [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5050.00 yuan/ton and in Jiangsu was 5100.00 yuan/ton on both October 24 and 23, with no change [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1633 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1647 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1631 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1642 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1]