本周热点前瞻2025-10-27

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]