Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market: Consider a strategy of buying on dips for stock index futures, and pay attention to index rotation. For Treasury bond futures, expect a volatile upward trend and focus on the odds of short-term bonds [9][10]. - Black commodities: May experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid-term outlook of overall volatility. For coal and coke, prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. For ferroalloys, a mid-term bearish view remains. For soda ash and glass, consider taking short-term profits on soda ash shorts and adopt a wait-and-see approach for glass [12][13][14]. - Non-ferrous metals and new materials: For aluminum, follow the upward trend overseas but with limited domestic follow - up strength, so it is advisable to wait and see. For alumina, consider shorting on rallies. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a range [20][21][22]. - Agricultural products: For cotton, consider shorting on rallies. For sugar, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing. For eggs, operate with a volatile mindset. For apples, expect a volatile and upward trend. For corn, consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. For red dates, consider shorting on rallies. For live pigs, expect short - term price volatility [24][26][28]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is expected to face a situation of oversupply and is prone to decline. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly. Rubber is expected to fluctuate without a clear trend. Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate. Asphalt is expected to trend strongly. Pulp is expected to be observed for port de - stocking and spot transactions. Logs are expected to have a weak - oscillating fundamental situation. Urea is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber offers opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks [37][38][39]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and basic consensus was reached on resolving respective concerns [4]. - President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea and conduct a state visit. The two sides are in close communication about a possible meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [4]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to bring about a new market space of about 10 trillion yuan in the next 5 years, and recreate China's high - tech industry in the next 10 years. It is also expected to generate over 5 trillion yuan in new investment demand for underground pipeline construction and renovation during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [4]. - US inflation data in September was lower than expected, and the market has fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the year [4]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend a series of meetings in Malaysia [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen financial supervision, and promote high - level two - way financial opening [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms and strengthen the resilience and anti - risk ability of the capital market [4]. - Industry associations in logistics, non - ferrous metals, etc. have launched initiatives to resist "involution" - style competition [4]. - The US manufacturing and service PMIs in October showed an upward trend, while consumer confidence declined [4][5]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened higher and closed higher on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. The Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite, and the trading volume in the A - share market has rebounded. It is recommended to continue considering a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is in a balanced and loose state. Affected by the Sino - US talks, risk appetite has increased, and bond prices have been suppressed. The central bank's net injection of 200 billion yuan through MLF in October is noted. It is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened in the fourth quarter, and a volatile upward trend is expected for Treasury bond futures, with attention to the odds of short - term bonds [10]. Black Commodities - Overall: The black commodity market may experience a volatile adjustment, with a mid - term outlook of overall volatility. Policy expectations have cooled, and the market is focusing on real - world performance. The real demand for steel products in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited improvement, and there are concerns about negative feedback risks from supply and demand [12][13]. - Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection restrictions, and safety inspections. The potential negative feedback risk from the steel industry may limit the upside of coal and coke prices [14]. - Ferroalloys: A mid - term bearish view remains. The industry's over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the market is under pressure from industrial hedging and market allocation funds [15]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, consider taking short - term profits on shorts. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply of soda ash has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory is relatively high [16][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum may follow the upward trend overseas, but domestic follow - up strength is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see. Alumina has a large supply surplus pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate narrowly within a range [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Consider shorting on rallies. The international cotton market is affected by trade tariffs and the US government shutdown, while the domestic market is supported by cost but limited by supply pressure [24][25]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is facing a large supply surplus. Domestically, the supply is gradually increasing, and the price is under pressure from imports. Consider short - term rolling operations or waiting and seeing [26][27]. - Eggs: The egg - laying hen industry is in a "capacity reduction" process, and the futures market is showing strength. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upside of the spot price may be limited. Operate with a volatile mindset [28][29]. - Apples: Expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually coming onto the market. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants [30][31]. - Corn: Consider shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The corn market is facing phased supply pressure, and pay attention to the new grain sales progress and the release rhythm of policy - supported wheat [32]. - Red Dates: Consider shorting on rallies. The market price is stable, but there is an expectation of a decline in the opening price [33]. - Live Pigs: The supply - demand situation is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may be suppressed. The supply - demand contradiction of oversupply is expected to become more prominent, and the price is prone to decline [37]. - Fuel Oil: Prices will follow crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on the supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [38]. - Plastics: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. After a recent rebound, the upward momentum is insufficient [39]. - Rubber: Has no obvious trend and is mainly fluctuating. The cost is supported by rising upstream raw material prices, and pay attention to the raw material supply in the producing areas and macro - economic impacts [40]. - Methanol: The market is volatile due to the uncertainty of Iranian imports. Although the supply is large, there are supply - side disturbances. Consider a strategy of waiting for a rebound and then making a small - scale long - position allocation [41]. - Caustic Soda: Has a downward driving force due to weak spot prices but is supported by coal costs. Maintain a volatile mindset [42]. - Asphalt: The price trend is strong, and the focus is on the raw material concerns caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Affected by the improvement in the macro - environment, it may be stronger in the short term. However, the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are still weak [45]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand from the blending market may weaken, and pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade negotiations [46]. - Paper Pulp: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Observe the port de - stocking and spot transactions, and consider establishing long positions on the 01 contract if the spot price is stable [46]. - Logs: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating, with stable downstream demand and cost support. Consider taking long positions on the 01 contract on dips [48]. - Urea: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. Maintain a volatile mindset [49]. - Synthetic Rubber: There are opportunities for short - term long positions on pullbacks, but the upward pressure is large, so be cautious about chasing the market [50].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251027
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-27 05:48