沥青（BU）：原油反弹，沥青跟涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating", with a short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitude of -5% - 5% [4][77] Core View - Crude oil rebounds, and asphalt follows the upward trend. The overall situation of asphalt is that supply remains high, demand in the north declines due to the rainy season, and the peak season fails to show strong performance. The general trend continues to fluctuate with crude oil [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It has a neutral impact. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1312,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). The current capacity utilization rate is low due to factors such as some refineries switching production or entering maintenance [4] - Demand: It has a negative impact. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Although there is an increase in total shipments this week (up 9.2% from the previous cycle), the overall demand shows a slow downward trend with the drop in temperature [4] - Inventory: It has a neutral impact. The factory inventory shows a mixed trend of rising and falling, with a significant decline in South China. The social inventory is in a destocking state, especially in the north [4] - Cost: It has a neutral impact. International oil prices fluctuated slightly upward this week. They were dragged down at the beginning of the week and rebounded later due to various factors such as geopolitical situations and inventory data [4] - Investment View: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate, following the general trend of crude oil [4] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no specific strategy [4] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 through charts [6][7][10] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: The report shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][16] - Basis: The basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 is presented in a chart [19] 4. Supply - Production Plan: The monthly production plan and actual output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 are shown, as well as the production in regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [23][26][29] - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts [34][38][40] - Maintenance Loss: The weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown in a chart [45] 5. Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: The production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 is presented through a chart [48][49] - Diluted Asphalt: The price, premium/discount, and port inventory (in China and Shandong) of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown in charts [52][53] 6. Inventory - Factory Inventory: The factory inventory volumes in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [57] - Factory Inventory Rate: The factory inventory rates in different regions from 2019 to 2025 are shown in charts [60] - Social Inventory: The social inventory volumes in different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [63] 7. Demand - Shipment Volume: The shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [66] - Downstream开工率: The开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 are presented through charts [68][72] - Modified Asphalt开工率: The开工率 of modified asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 are presented through charts [75]