贵金属期货周报：中美贸易进展提振风险偏好，贵金属震荡偏强-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Fundamentally, precious metals retreated from highs last week and showed a volatile upward trend. The easing of Sino-US trade relations reduced risk aversion, but geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict still drove the safe-haven demand for precious metals. The suspension of CFTC data and possible speculative long positions led to a significant correction in precious metals. With the decline of COMEX silver inventory, the squeeze in the London silver market gradually eased. In the short term, precious metals face correction pressure and will remain volatile and strong [3]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories continued to decline, and the tightness of London silver inventory gradually eased. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased. Overall, ETF funds continued to flow into the precious metals sector last week [3]. - In terms of strategy, in the short term, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade consultations and the negotiations at the APEC summit at the end of the month. The market has basically digested the expectation of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in October. In the long term, the US government shutdown continues, and the US national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, increasing the fiscal burden. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization and global political turmoil, central banks continue to buy gold, and precious metals still have allocation value. The prices of Shanghai gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to buy in batches on dips and hold long positions in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: Gold and silver prices in both the spot and futures markets declined last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market dropped by 0.95%, and the COMEX silver futures price fell by 0.49%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased, while total positions and speculative net long positions increased [5]. - Gold-Silver Ratio: The domestic gold-silver ratio rebounded last week. Due to the smaller market size, weaker liquidity, and lack of central bank buying support in the silver market, its decline was greater than that of gold, driving up the gold-silver ratio [7]. - Price Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and overseas markets decreased compared with last week. The decline in domestic precious metal prices was more significant. The improvement in Sino-US trade relations and the positive outlook of the 15th Five-Year Plan reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals [12]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - US Dollar Index: The US dollar index strengthened slightly last week, suppressing precious metals. The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the possible implementation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in Japan boosted the US dollar [13]. - US Treasury Real Yield: The real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasuries declined last week. The high debt scale and the government shutdown increased market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability, driving investors to buy US Treasuries and pushing down real yields [16]. - US Key Economic Data: - CPI: In September, the US CPI and core CPI increased year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. The inflation pressure of core commodities and services eased, and it is expected to open up space for the Fed to cut interest rates in October [20]. - PPI: In August, the US PPI was lower than expected year-on-year and turned negative month-on-month for the first time in four months, indicating a relief of inflation pressure at the production end [21]. - Core PCE: In August, the US core PCE and PCE increased year-on-year and month-on-month, in line with market expectations. Due to the slowdown in core inflation and employment risks, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [27]. - PMI: In September, the US ISM manufacturing and service PMI were lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service industries [30]. - Retail Sales: In August, the US retail sales increased month-on-month, higher than expected, mainly driven by online sales, clothing, and sports goods [30]. - Employment Data: In September, the US ADP employment decreased significantly, and the August non-farm payrolls were far lower than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high. The government shutdown affected the release of employment data, increasing uncertainty [33]. - US Government Shutdown: The US government shutdown is likely to continue until November, becoming the second-longest in history. It has a negative impact on the economy and society, increasing the fiscal burden and employment pressure. However, the easing of Sino-US trade relations and the geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have different effects on precious metals [35][36]. 3. Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of September 23, 2025, CMX gold and silver speculative net long positions increased compared with the previous month, indicating that hedge funds increased their holdings of gold and silver [39]. - ETF Positions: As of October 23, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF increased compared with last week. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased significantly last week and then declined, remaining at a high level [40]. 4. Other Factors - Gold and Silver Inventories: As of October 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased compared with last week. The return of silver inventory from New York to London eased the squeeze in the London silver market [45]. - Gold and Silver Demand: In October 2025, the global gold reserve decreased slightly, while China's gold reserve increased. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased year-on-year, mainly driven by ETF investment. The global silver market is expected to be in short supply in 2025, with strong industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic industry [49]. - Key Events This Week: This week, focus on the Fed's October interest rate meeting, with a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, and the APEC summit, where the meeting between Chinese and US leaders may affect Sino-US trade negotiations [52].