铁合金周报：供需趋于宽松，上行略显乏力-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, ferroalloy prices rebounded slightly following the black - series commodities. The main contract of silicomanganese rose by 0.94%, and ferrosilicon futures rose by 2.06%, with ferrosilicon performing stronger than silicomanganese. The current supply in the production areas remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the high molten iron production in the downstream still supports the demand for alloys, but the main contradiction lies in inventory. As the downstream demand weakens seasonally, it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The cost side of ferroalloys is relatively strong, with coal - coke prices rising and some manganese ore prices increasing. Overall, the alloy prices are in a state of "having a bottom and a ceiling", and the market is expected to move in a range in the short term. Short - selling risks are high, and it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, while paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese. The reference range for the main silicomanganese contract is [5700, 5850], and for the main ferrosilicon contract is [5300, 5700] [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Silicomanganese Market - Price: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi remained unchanged, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7][8] - Cost and Profit: The production costs in the northern and southern regions are 5818 yuan/ton and 6253 yuan/ton respectively, with production losses of 170 yuan/ton and 631 yuan/ton respectively [12] - Electricity Price: The electricity price in the production areas remained stable [13] - Basis: The basis in Jiangsu is - 22 yuan/ton [15] - Supply: As of October 24, the national silicomanganese output was 20.74 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 43.04%, a decrease of 0.24% [22] - Demand: The output of rebar increased, and the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons [23] - Steel Mill Tendering: HeSteel's silicomanganese tender price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous round. The procurement volume was 16,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous round but an increase of 4,500 tons compared to the same period last year [29] - Inventory: The enterprise inventory was 293,000 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons from the previous week [30] - Manganese Ore Price: High - grade manganese ore prices decreased slightly, while South32 semi - carbonate increased by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree [32] - Outer Market: Some mines' November quotes continued to rise. South32's November manganese ore quotes for China showed an increase of 0.05 dollars/ton - degree for South African semi - carbonate and high - manganese ore, and Comilog's Gabon block increased by 0.08 dollars/ton - degree [38] - Shipping Data: The shipping and arrival volumes increased, and the port clearance volume decreased compared to the previous week [39] - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of October 17, the national port inventory was 4.364 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.777 million tons, a decrease of 91,000 tons [42] Ferrosilicon Market - Price: The spot prices in production areas were strong. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Gansu increased, and the price in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton [44][46] - Cost and Profit: The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5616 yuan/ton and 5513 yuan/ton respectively, with production losses of 416 yuan/ton and 333 yuan/ton respectively [49] - Basis: The basis in Jiangsu is 108 yuan/ton [50] - Supply: As of October 24, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 114,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 35.56%, an increase of 0.08% [57] - Steel Mill Tendering: HeSteel's ferrosilicon tender price in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from September. The procurement volume was 2956 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from September but an increase of 920 tons compared to the same period last year [63] - Non - steel Demand: Not detailed in the report - Inventory: The enterprise inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 2500 tons from the previous week [66]