Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the performance of the black - plate sector continued to diverge. The main contract of rebar rose 0.3% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil rose 1.4%, iron ore remained flat, coking coal rose 5.9%, and coke rose 4.9%. The supply and demand of rebar were both weak, while those of hot - rolled coil were both strong. Rebar inventory was higher than last year but was expected to be normally destocked later, and hot - rolled coil might face inventory pressure [2]. - Steel overall inventory was high, and the supply - demand situation was still weak. Pig iron production was likely to decline, and the raw material side would face certain negative feedback risks later. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session had little impact. Only the supply side of coking coal had upward driving force, but the marginal impact decreased. Overall, the upward driving force of steel was limited, and it might show a weakening oscillatory trend in the short and medium term [2]. - Regarding the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the export of hot - rolled coil was expected to continue to improve, and the spread increased this week. However, considering the relative inventory, the pressure on hot - rolled coil was greater, and the spread was expected to narrow again [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - Monthly Data: In September 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 66050,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative output was 645,860,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The monthly output of crude steel was 73490,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative output was 746,250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The monthly output of steel was 124,210,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative output was 1,103,850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Steel imports decreased by 1% year - on - year to 550,000 tons, and the cumulative imports decreased by 12.6% to 4,530,000 tons. Steel exports increased by 3.6% year - on - year to 10,470,000 tons, and the cumulative exports increased by 9.2% to 87,960,000 tons [4]. - Weekly Data: As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 2,070,700 tons, an increase of 591,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%; the weekly output of wire rod was 883,200 tons, an increase of 365,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7%; the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was 3,224,600 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; the weekly output of cold - rolled coil was 860,700 tons, a decrease of 134,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.86%; the weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 1,614,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.82%. The total output of the five major steel products was 8,653,200 tons, an increase of 837,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.05% [5]. - Production Profit: On October 23, 2025, the profit of rebar - blast furnace in East China was 95, with a change of 10; in North China, it was - 11, with a change of 10; in Central China, it was 175, with a change of 0. The profit of rebar - electric furnace - valley electricity in East China was - 92, with a change of - 5; in North China, it was - 83, with a change of - 23; in Central China, it was - 80, with a change of - 1. The profit of rebar - electric furnace - flat electricity in East China was - 213, with a change of - 5; in North China, it was - 167, with a change of - 24; in Central China, it was - 210, with a change of 0. The profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in East China was 114, with a change of 20; in North China, it was 3, with a change of 20; in Central China, it was 95, with a change of 0 [20]. Steel Demand - Building Materials Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 13.7%. The marginal improvement of cement delivery volume was observed, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to that of the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11% [27][30]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption: In September, the export volume increased month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, reaching a high for the same period. After August, the price difference between domestic and foreign hot - rolled coils rebounded, which was conducive to the recovery of export volume [36]. Steel Inventory - Rebar Inventory: The rebar inventory was higher than last year, but due to low production, it was expected to be normally destocked later. The rebar basis was relatively stable recently, with little change. The basis for the 01 contract was at a relatively low level in recent years. Usually, the basis weakened after November. Currently, the rebar production was lower than the same period last year, and the inventory was expected to enter the normal destocking stage, so the short - term basis was expected to run stably [2][50]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: The inventory of hot - rolled coil might further accumulate, and there might be inventory pressure later. The basis of the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil was running weakly and stably. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to decline but was still at the highest level for the same period. The inventories of cold - rolled coil and medium and heavy plate were also at high levels. Against the background of high pig iron production and hot - rolled coil production, the inventory pressure might drive the basis to run weakly [2][54]. Steel Price Spreads - Spread between Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar: The export of hot - rolled coil was expected to continue to improve, and the spread increased this week. However, considering the relative inventory, the pressure on hot - rolled coil was greater, and the spread was expected to narrow again [2]. - Rebar Month - to - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rebar ran weakly at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slightly discounted state. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tended to be looser, and the spread might form a reverse - arbitrage pattern [64].
钢材周报：供需逻辑之下偏弱运行-20251027
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-27 06:13