石脑油-芳烃产业链周报：苯乙烯顺利投产，但仍需警惕纯苯季节性下跌-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - Overall Situation: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - Specific Indicators: - PXN: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - TA Processing Fee: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - Styrene/Crude Oil: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - PTA/Crude Oil: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - Crude Oil: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - Naphtha Crack Spread: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - BZN: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - Naphtha MOPJ: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - BZ Paper Cargo Basis: It has rebounded recently [29]. - PX (01 Contract Basis): It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - Styrene (11 Contract Basis): Near 0, with little change [29]. - PTA (01 Contract Basis): Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Upstream: - Cracking: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - Capacity and Maintenance: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - Mid - stream: - Pure Benzene: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - PX: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - New - Malaysia Region: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - US Gasoline: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Pure Benzene Downstream: - Styrene: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - Caprolactam: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - Adipic Acid: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - Phenol: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - Aniline: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - PX Downstream (PTA): The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - Terminal Demand: - Home Appliances: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - Automobiles: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - Clothing and Textiles: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].