集运指数欧线周报（EC）：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC主力反弹-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the container shipping index for the European route is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - disturbances and peak - season expectations have led to a rebound in the EC main contract. The current sanctions have little impact on the European route, which is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first attempt at price - holding in late October to stop the decline was initially successful, and it has now entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are leading. However, attention should still be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Logic - Spot Freight Rates (Likely Positive): In late October, Maersk quoted $1800 - 1900, HPL $1900, OOCL $2600, CMA $2100, EMC $2050, MSC $2050, YML $1350, and ONE $1450. In early November, HPL quoted $2500, CMA $2800, EMC $2700, MSC $2550, YML $1350, and ONE $2550 [3] - Political and Economic (Likely Negative): There are positive signs in Sino - US trade relations; some shipping companies are re - flagging ships to India; the Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion from the current $4 billion; the US and Vietnam have reached a trade framework agreement [3] - Capacity Supply (Neutral): Weekly average capacity deployment was 305,000 in September, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [3] - Demand (Neutral): There is a differentiation in loading rates. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - Investment View and Strategy - Investment View: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach (due to the short - term peak - season price increase claims being unfalsifiable and the market being in a bullish - biased oscillation). For arbitrage, also wait and see [3] 3.2 Price - The report presents multiple line charts showing the trends of various container shipping route indices (such as European route, US West route, US East route, and Mediterranean route indices) and Maersk's European route quotes for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers [6][11] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: Multiple line charts display the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [14] - Delivery Volume: Line charts show the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [17][18] - Future Delivery: Charts present the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and seasonal data [23][25] - Ship Prices: Line charts show the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities [30][32][38] - Existing Fleet: Charts show the existing capacity, age, and idle capacity of container ships in different loading capacities [45][52][79] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Shipping Schedule: Line charts show the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [60][62][64] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Charts show the number and proportion of container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and time for installing desulfurization towers, as well as the average speed and idle capacity of container ships [70][74][79]