有色金属基础周报：“十五五“暖风吹，有色金属整体震荡走强-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have long - term upward potential due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing demand from computing power construction, but short - term price increases may suppress downstream demand, leading to a recent trend of oscillatory upward movement [2] - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward in a high - level oscillation. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and suggestions include taking profit on long positions for aluminum and selling out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] - Zinc prices are predicted to oscillate and decline. It is recommended to conduct range trading [2] - Lead prices may rise after consolidation. It is advisable to go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range. It is suggested to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel prices are recommended for range trading [3] - Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation. Range trading is recommended [3] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and range trading or waiting and seeing is advised [3] - Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - 10/20 - 10/26 Economic Data: China's 10 - year LPR remained unchanged, with the five - year at 3.5% and the one - year at 3%. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and September's industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year. UK's September core CPI was 3.5% year - on - year, and the eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.2. US September core CPI rose 3% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase [11] - China's Economic Situation: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the overall economic operation maintained a stable and progressive trend. In September, social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year [12][13] - Policy and International Events: The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Fourth Plenary Session proposed the 15th Five - Year Plan, aiming to develop future industries. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [14][15] - US and Eurozone Economic Data: US September CPI grew 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI's month - on - month increase was 0.2%, the slowest in three months. The eurozone's October composite PMI reached a 1.5 - year high [16][18] - 10/27 - 11/2 Forecasted Economic Data: Multiple economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone are to be released, including industrial enterprise profits, durable goods orders, and GDP data [20] 3.2 Metal Market Analysis Copper - Price Movement: Copper prices rose strongly this week, with a 3.68% increase in the weekly line. LME copper approached $11,000 [2] - Supply and Demand: Supply - side disruptions continued, such as the shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine and ongoing strikes at Codelco in Chile. Downstream demand was restricted by price increases [2] - Recommendation: Hold a small number of long positions at low prices [2] Aluminum - Price Movement: Aluminum prices showed a high - level upward oscillation, while alumina prices were expected to decline [2] - Supply and Demand: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity decreased slightly. Downstream processing enterprise start - up rates declined [2] - Recommendation: Take profit on long positions at high prices for aluminum and sell out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] Zinc - Price Movement: Zinc prices rose significantly last week but are expected to oscillate and decline [2] - Supply and Demand: Refined zinc production is expected to remain high in Q4, while terminal consumption is weak [2] - Recommendation: Conduct range trading [2] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices reached a recent high and may rise after consolidation [2] - Supply and Demand: Supply decreased, and primary lead consumption demand was strong [2] - Recommendation: Go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] Nickel - Price Movement: Nickel prices oscillated and rose last week and are expected to oscillate within a range [3] - Supply and Demand: Nickel ore prices are expected to remain firm, and refined nickel is in a surplus situation [3] - Recommendation: Hold short positions moderately at high prices [3] Tin - Price Movement: Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation [3] - Supply and Demand: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak [3] - Recommendation: Conduct range trading [3] Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [3] - Supply and Demand: Production and inventory showed different trends, and the situation of each segment in the photovoltaic industry chain varied [3] - Recommendation: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price Movement: Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound [3] - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation, and downstream demand is good [3] - Recommendation: Wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3]