聚酯周报：原油趋势反转，聚酯价格跟随上行-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - Demand: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - Inventory: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - Basis: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - Profit: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - Macro - policy: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - Investment view: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Gasoline demand: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - Inventory and price: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - Supply contraction: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - Arbitrage opportunity: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - Polyester operation: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].