Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's current economic pattern shows "strong supply and weak demand". In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, showing a continuous decline for four months. From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment turned negative, with real estate investment being the main drag, showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" has been implemented, with 7 major domestic economic development goals and 12 major deployments proposed, focusing on areas such as technological development, domestic demand expansion, opening up, social livelihood, and security development [3]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations, which may ease trade frictions [3]. - The market trading volume has further shrunk, indicating a short - term liquidity deterioration [3]. - Against the backdrop of policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the index is expected to return to an upward channel after the short - term adjustment, and the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take long - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Their Driving Forces - Economic and Corporate Earnings: The economic pattern is "strong supply, weak demand", with production being strong and demand weak. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has positive implications for the economy, rated as neutral [3]. - Macro Policy: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" brings positive factors, rated as neutral - bullish [3]. - Overseas Factors: The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations may ease trade frictions, changing from bearish to neutral [3]. - Liquidity: The market trading volume has shrunk, rated as bearish [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: It is recommended to take long positions opportunistically, with a focus on long - term long - term operations. The trading strategy is to take long positions unilaterally, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4,660.7; the SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3,045.8; the CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7,258.5; the CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7,419.2 [5]. - Futures Performance: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 3.36%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 2.88%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 4.19%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.73% [6]. - Industry Index Performance: The Shenwan Primary Industry Index generally rose, with communications (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.4%) and food and beverage (-0.9%) declined [10]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased. The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 30.99%, the SSE 50 futures by 30.22%, the CSI 500 futures by 26.20%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 22.30%. The open interest of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.91%, the SSE 50 futures by 2.65%, the CSI 500 futures by 1.21%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 4.15% [12]. - Spread Performance: The spread of different contracts of various stock index futures showed different degrees of discount and premium [13][14][15]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 95.2% historical quantile level, the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 33.7% historical quantile level, the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 42.5% historical quantile level, and the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level [19]. Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, achieving a net investment of 198.1 billion yuan. Next week, 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, along with 700 billion yuan of MLF and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase [27]. - Market Liquidity Indicators: As of October 23, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,443.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 11.7%, at the 96.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 349.49 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of October 24, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.02, at the 42.9% quantile level in the past ten years [33]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8%, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. Other indicators such as inflation, social financing, and foreign trade also showed different trends [36]. - Industry - Specific Indicators: In different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure, various indicators showed different trends. For example, in the real estate industry, investment continued to decline; in the consumer industry, the sales of some categories increased, while others decreased; in the manufacturing industry, different sub - sectors had different growth rates [38][42][43]. - Profitability of Indexes and Industries: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of some indexes and industries increased, while others decreased [50][51]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - Recent Macro Policy Developments: A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including policies related to service consumption, special bonds, the "15th Five - Year Plan", real estate, and consumption loans. These policies aim to promote economic development, expand domestic demand, and support specific industries [55][56][57]. Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Indicators: In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in October was 53.6, up 1.5 from the previous value. In August, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22,000 [65]. - US Inflation Indicators: In September 2025, the US PCE increased by 0% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 0% year - on - year. The CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [69]. - Trump Team's Actions: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [73].
股指周报：市场情绪回暖，股指反弹-20251027
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-27 06:11