塑料数据周报（PP、PE）-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate. Influenced by supply, demand, inventory, cost and other factors, the supply side has some fluctuations in production and capacity utilization, the demand side has mixed performance in different downstream industries, the inventory shows a downward trend, the cost of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact on the market [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to oscillate. The supply side's capacity utilization has decreased, the demand side has a positive outlook in general with different downstream industries performing differently, the inventory at various levels has decreased, the profit of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.46%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some devices were under maintenance, and some newly - stopped devices restarted during the week [2]. Demand - The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.52%. In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2]. Inventory - As of this week, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 51.46 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 2.81% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, and 9.19% lower year - on - year. The inventory of imported polyethylene in warehouses decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and was 20.33% lower year - on - year [2]. Cost and Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased by 41, 242, and 81 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The ethylene - based cost remained unchanged, and the methanol - based cost decreased by 163 yuan/ton. International oil prices rose due to factors such as US sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.94%, a 2.28% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 78.76%, a 2.25% month - on - month decrease [3]. Demand - The average operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%. With the cooling weather, the demand for cold - chain packaging in some regions increased. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers rose, driving up the operating rate of the PP non - woven fabric industry. The operating rates of the CPP and BOPP industries increased steadily. Although the PP pipe and plastic - weaving industries were affected by rainy weather, with the approaching of e - commerce festivals, the overall demand for polypropylene products is expected to continue to improve [3]. Inventory - As of this week, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 63.85 million tons, a 4.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 5.92% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.11 million tons from the previous period, a 1.62% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of domestic polypropylene traders decreased by 1.86 million tons from the previous period, a 7.80% month - on - month decrease [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. The international energy agency warned of long - term supply surplus risks, and trade disputes initiated by the US suppressed the demand outlook, putting pressure on the oil market. The profit of oil - based PP production rose to - 278.53 yuan/ton [3]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [3] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - PP futures price was 6,662 yuan/ton, a 1.69% increase from last week; PE futures price was 6,969 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase from last week. PP spot price was 6,640 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from last week; LLDPE spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, a 0.99% increase from last week [5]. - The operating rate of PP was 38.6%, a 2.60% decrease from last week; the operating rate of PE was 81.46%, a 0.37% decrease from last week [5]. - The factory inventory of PP was 42,970 tons, a 1.58% increase from last week; the social inventory of PE was 64.52 million tons, a 0.54% increase from last week [5].