利率债周报：上周债市有所调整，长债收益率波动上行-20251027

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields fluctuated upwards. The expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the overall boost of the Fourth Plenary Session to the "15th Five - Year Plan" risk preference led to the stock - bond seesaw effect, making the bond market oscillate weakly. Short - term yields rose slightly more than long - term yields, and the yield curve flattened further [2]. - This week (the week of October 27), the bond market will continue the weakly oscillating market. The easing expectation of Sino - US trade relations and the high market risk preference, along with the concern about the bond - fund redemption and asset re - allocation pressure caused by the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, will continue to suppress the bond market. Without trend - driving factors, the bond market needs to digest these negative factors, and the 10 - year Treasury yield will run in the range of 1.70% - 1.80% [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Section 1: Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.24% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.40bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 2.82bp compared with the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to narrow [3]. - From October 20 to 24, the bond market showed different trends each day. For example, on October 20, the bond market weakened due to the stock - market rebound and progress in Sino - US talks; on October 21, the bond market oscillated strongly due to the expected interest - rate cut [3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an issuance volume of 10763 billion, a net financing of 847 billion. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while those of policy - bank bonds decreased [9]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 2.61 times, 3.36 times, and 20.42 times respectively [10]. Section 2: Last Week's Important Events - In the third quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed down to 4.8%. Although the export growth accelerated, domestic investment and consumption decelerated, and the pulling force of domestic demand on economic growth weakened. The slowdown of infrastructure investment, the impact on manufacturing investment confidence, and the decline of real - estate investment led to a significant decline in investment growth, which was the main reason for the GDP growth slowdown [11]. Section 3: Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side increased, such as the blast - furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum - asphalt plant operating rate, while the daily average pig - iron output decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index declined, and the CCFI index rose slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose [12]. Section 4: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market net investment was 1981 billion yuan. R007 decreased, DR007 increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms decreased, the volume of pledged - repo transactions fluctuated and decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to decline [23].