Shanghai Ziyan Foods (SH:603057) EBSCN·2025-10-27 06:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 2.514 billion yuan, down 6.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 194 million yuan, down 44.37% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth rate has shown improvement quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 1.041 billion yuan, an increase of 1.75% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin has decreased, with Q1-Q3 2025 gross margin at 22.52% and Q3 2025 at 22.92%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.61 percentage points [3]. Revenue Performance - For Q3 2025, fresh product revenue was 874 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year, driven by growth in spicy snacks and other fresh products [2]. - The company is expanding into overseas markets, achieving 11 million yuan in revenue from international operations in Q1-Q3 2025 [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The report indicates a need for profit recovery, with the net profit margin for Q3 2025 at 8.60%, down 6.15 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The sales expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 5.58%, while the management expense ratio was 6.37%, indicating increased costs associated with market expansion efforts [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 255 million, 278 million, and 325 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 27.6%, 28.2%, and 24.7% from previous estimates [4]. - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.62, 0.67, and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 28, and 24 [4][5].