Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points (previous value: 128.3 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points (previous value: 5.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value: 4.9%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.4 (previous value: 127.4), with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points (previous value: 5.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 42.0 (previous value: 42.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.0), with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6 (previous value: 143.6), with a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.6 (previous value: 120.6), with a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly - on - monthly forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly - on - monthly forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%) [1][9][10]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.7 (previous value: 162.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.9 (previous value: 131.7), with a year - on - year increase of 10.2 points (previous value: 10.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. - The high - frequency financing index is 240.4 (previous value: 239.8), with a year - on - year increase of 30.3 points (previous value: 30.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal factor of interest - rate bonds is 4.7%, a decrease from the previous value [1][9][11]. Production: Polyester Operating Rate Slightly Increases - The electric - furnace operating rate is 60.9%, unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 89.1%, an increase from the previous value of 88.0%; the semi - tire operating rate is 73.7%, an increase from the previous value of 72.7%; the full - tire operating rate is 65.6%, an increase from the previous value of 64.5%; the PTA operating rate is 76.0%, an increase from the previous value of 75.6%; the PX operating rate is 86.3%, a decrease from the previous value of 87.3%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 46.9 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 54.4 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Slightly Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 28.7 million square meters, a decrease from the previous value of 31.0 million square meters; the land premium rate of transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [26]. Infrastructure Investment: Infrastructure High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The infrastructure high - frequency index is 122.1, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The operating rate of local refineries is 50.0%, a decrease from the previous value of 50.3% [11][35]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 993 points (previous value: 973 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.6 points (previous value: 294.2 points) [43]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Continues to Decline - The daily average box office of movies is 32.82 million yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 37.49 million yuan [54]. CPI: Pork Prices Slightly Decrease - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 18.3 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.2 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 5.0 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.0 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 7.1 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 17.6 yuan/kg [60]. PPI: Prices of Coal, Copper, Aluminum, and Oil Have All Increased - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous value of 727 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 63 US dollars/barrel, an increase from the previous value of 62 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10,679 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 10,588 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,814 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 2,765 US dollars/ton [65]. Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Slightly Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39.59 million person - times, a decrease from the previous value of 40.26 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, an increase from the previous value of 1049 points; the number of domestic flights is 13,007, an increase from the previous value of 12,790 [75]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Decreases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.8 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 16.8 tons; the soda - ash inventory is 170.6 tons, an increase from the previous value of 169.3 tons [84]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Significantly Increases - The net financing of local bonds within the week is 165.8 billion yuan, an increase from the previous value of - 19.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 135.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 184.7 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.6%, a decrease from the previous value of 0.7%; the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate is - 1.00%, a decrease from the previous value of - 0.93% [95].
基本面高频数据跟踪：电厂耗煤回升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-10-27 06:38