PVC周报：库存窄幅去化，低位震荡-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Oct 20 - Oct 24), PVC prices oscillated at a low level, with the weekly line turning positive and ending a four - week losing streak. The market is expected to continue its low - level oscillation in the future. The fundamentals remain in a pattern of high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and weak demand, with limited upside drivers. However, due to the low absolute price and the strengthening of raw material prices, the downside space is extremely limited. The current position volume is at a high level for the same period, so attention should be paid to capital dynamics [3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Review - This week, PVC prices oscillated at a low level. It opened 8 points higher at the weekly low of 4696 on Monday, then rose to 4746 and oscillated downward. It hit the weekly low of 4670 on Tuesday night and then rebounded, reaching the weekly high of 4749 on Friday night and finally closing at 4708, up 20 points or 0.3% from last week. The amplitude for the whole week was 79 points. As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4708 yuan/ton, and the main position volume was 1.23 million lots [3][8][11]. - As of Friday, the Changzhou basis of PVC was - 108 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 120,000 lots. The V1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 230 yuan/ton [14][17]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1), with the capacity utilization rate at 77%. The cumulative production from week 1 to week 43 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. It is predicted that the supply will increase next week as the start - up of PVC enterprises will rise and the maintenance enterprises will gradually resume production. However, the start - up of downstream enterprises will remain low, and export is expected to decline, so the overall supply - demand gap is expected to widen [20]. Real Estate - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%, - 9.4%, - 15.3%, and - 5.5% respectively. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand. In September 2025, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.84 million square meters [23][26]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream start - up rate was 49%, and it has been slowly increasing after the holiday. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the apparent consumption in September being 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. Exports - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (an increase of 980,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India). The export market continues the trend of "trading volume with price", and the weekly order signing increased month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 3.14 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%), and the export volume in September was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 3%) [32][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons), and the inventory has been accelerating to decline for two consecutive weeks after the holiday. The upstream enterprises' pre - sales volume was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8). The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%), remaining stable [41][44]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 723 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support. Currently, the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration continues to be compressed [47][50]. Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the low valuation of the absolute price in the short term, participate in the rebound market with a light position according to capital dynamics. Pay attention to the range of [4650, 4850] for the V2601 contract. - Hedging: As the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market when the price is high [5].