股指早报：中美马来西亚磋商释放积极信号，周末众多利好-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation in Malaysia sent positive signals, with the two sides reaching a framework on issues such as fentanyl, ships, rare earths, and soybeans, and the 10 - month Sino - US trade friction is basically over for now [2]. - The US inflation in September was basically in line with expectations. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP this Thursday, but its stance on subsequent rate cuts may be dovish [3]. - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes technological self - reliance, and it is expected that industrial and fiscal policies related to the modern industrial system and technological self - reliance will be introduced. The financial report shows that finance is serving the real economy more closely, and policies will promote a moderately loose monetary policy and lower social comprehensive financing costs [4][5]. - The A - share market rebounded last week, with the technology growth sector as the main line. With multiple favorable policies over the weekend, the market is expected to break through 4000 points on Monday, but the short - term upside space is limited, and the market is expected to show a volatile rebound trend. Maintain long positions in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - US CPI: The US September CPI was lower than expected. Traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The US White House may not release inflation data next month for the first time in history [7]. - Trade Agreements: The US signed various trade and key mineral agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, and will maintain certain tariffs. Trump met with the Brazilian president for economic and trade negotiations, and announced additional tariffs on Canada and terminated trade negotiations with it [7]. - Other News: Trump said the stock market was stronger due to tariff policies. The US and Japan may sign a technology cooperation memorandum. Xi Jinping will attend the APEC meeting in South Korea. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur reached a preliminary consensus. The State Council emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy and high - quality financial services. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. The CSRC focused on enhancing the resilience and risk - resistance ability of the capital market [7][8][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Multiple charts show the basis of contracts and inter - period spreads of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, including the basis of each contract (current month, next month, current quarter, next quarter) and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [11][16][20]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Index Valuation: Charts present the valuations and historical quantiles of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and the valuations and historical quantiles of Shenwan industries [31][33]. - Market Volume and Turnover: Charts show the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks in the two markets, the change in index trading volume, the relative return of stocks and bonds, the Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and the net purchase amount of margin trading and its proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [41].