有色金属周报：锌：情绪及海外库存支撑，锌价低位回升-20251027

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Qi Yurong - Qualification Number: F03100031 - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021060 - Contact: 010 - 8229 5006 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Macro sentiment has improved, and overseas inventories have continued to decline. The backwardation structure of LME zinc has deepened, driving SHFE zinc to oscillate upward. However, domestic demand remains weak, and although social inventory accumulation has temporarily stopped, it is still at a relatively high level. There is still pressure on the upside of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Movement: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.56% to 22,120 yuan/ton; SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.62% to 3,019.5 US dollars/ton [12] - Basis and Spread: Data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and various spreads in different regions and contract months are presented, but no specific summary data is given [14][16] 2. Winter Stockpiling + High Refinery Operation, TC Decline 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Port Inventory: As of October 24, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 391,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons [25] - Profit: As of October 23, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,224 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4,008,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [32] - TC: The CZSPT group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic TC has been declining, with the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropping from 3,650 yuan/metal ton in late September to 3,250 yuan/metal ton on October 24 [33][36] 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: Zinc prices have rebounded, but TC has declined, and the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to fall. As of October 23, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 694 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [44] - Import: The import profit window is closed. As of October 24, the import profit of refined zinc was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [47] 3. Demand Falling Short of Expectations, Slight Decline in Galvanizing Operation - Operation Rate: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 57.48%. Black prices were lackluster, and terminal procurement was less than expected. Galvanizing enterprises reduced their operation to prevent excessive inventory, and some enterprises may further cut production [54] - Inventory: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and cautious procurement by downstream users. Finished product inventory increased due to poor demand [57] 4. Poor Demand, Accumulation of Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Finished Products - Price: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 1.51% to 22,815 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 1.48% to 23,365 yuan/ton [63] - Operation Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 53.13%. Terminal demand weakened, leading to a decline in alloy operation. Some enterprises arranged holidays to consume finished product inventory, and the sector's operation may further decline [66] - Inventory: Raw material inventory increased as there were long - term order arrivals during the week despite high zinc prices and cautious procurement. Finished product inventory increased due to poor terminal demand and slow shipment [69] 5. Production and Sales in Balance, Slight Fluctuation in Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory - Price: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 1.43% to 21,300 yuan/ton [77] - Operation Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 56.36%. Some enterprises were affected by recent meetings, and the operating rate declined. It is expected to return to normal this week, and the operation rate may rise with the resumption of some enterprises that had holidays during the National Day [80] - Inventory: Raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and relatively high prices of some raw materials. Finished product inventory increased slightly as enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales [83] 6. High Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - SHFE and LME Inventory: As of October 23, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,000 tons, with slight fluctuations. The inventory in Shanghai decreased due to fast downstream pick - up, while the inventory in Tianjin increased significantly due to more weekend arrivals, and the inventory in Guangdong reached a nearly three - year high. As of October 24, SHFE inventory was 109,200 tons, showing a decline. As of October 23, LME inventory was 37,600 tons, continuing to decline [92][95] - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the situation of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025 [101]