Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-27 06:53Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys" [1] Core Viewpoint - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the decline in domestic social inventories have made aluminum prices cautiously bullish [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Section Alumina - Supply Side - Domestic: The construction of China National Aluminum's Guixi Nadou sedimentary bauxite mine has started, with an expected annual output of 800,000 physical tons. The first phase of the bauxite recycling project in Qingzhen City has started producing 440,000 tons of aluminum concentrate per year. The production of domestic bauxite in October may increase month-on-month. Several alumina projects are under construction or in production, which may increase the domestic alumina production in October [3][18][26] - Overseas: The third-phase project of Nanshan Aluminum's Bintan Alumina in Indonesia with a capacity of 1 million tons started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025. The overseas alumina production in October may increase, and the domestic alumina imports in October may increase month-on-month [3][35] - Demand Side - The matching surplus of China's alumina operating capacity compared to electrolytic aluminum in September has expanded month-on-month [3][26] - Inventory - The total inventory of China's alumina has increased compared to last week, including the inventory in ports, warehouses, and factories [15][17][27] - Price and Cost - The alumina basis is positive, and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. The near-far month contract closing prices show a Contango structure. The average daily full production cost of China's alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [12][22][14] - Investment Strategy - The domestic alumina supply and demand are expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the downside of alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 [4] Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply Side - Domestic: The first phase of the energy-saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Electrolytic Aluminum's second phase has started production, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's green power aluminum project is expected to be put into production in December 2025. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October may increase month-on-month. The import volume in October may also increase month-on-month due to the restart of overseas capacities [5][56][60] - Overseas: Several overseas electrolytic aluminum projects are restarting or expanding production [60] - Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has remained flat compared to last week. The production of remelted rods (aluminum rods) in October may increase month-on-month [5] - Inventory - The social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory in bonded areas, LME, and COMEX has also decreased [45][46] - Price and Cost - The Shanghai aluminum basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,080 yuan/ton [39][41][56] - Investment Strategy - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the increasing proportion of domestic electrolytic aluminum molten aluminum production leading to a decline in inventories may make Shanghai aluminum prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [6] Aluminum Alloys - Supply Side - Domestic: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in October may increase month-on-month, while the import volume may decrease. The production of primary (recycled, ADC12) aluminum alloys in October may decrease month-on-month [7][70][81] - Overseas: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China has declined [7] - Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week [90] - Inventory - The social inventory of China's aluminum alloys has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has also decreased [86][81] - Price and Cost - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The daily full production cost of China's primary aluminum alloy is 20,920 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,700 yuan/ton [64][75][78] - Investment Strategy - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the expected tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum may make aluminum alloy prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys with a light position in the short term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [8]