中辉期货豆粕日报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, providing short - term trends and trading strategies for each [1]. - Soymeal: Short - term bearish consolidation. Although weather factors support price stabilization, the upcoming Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties, limiting the rebound space [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term bearish consolidation. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new drivers, and the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation situation is complex [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term decline. The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month have a negative impact on market sentiment [1][8]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term decline. The harvest of US soybeans and sufficient domestic supply put pressure on prices, and it depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates and consumption season factors are offset by increased imports and potential Sino - Canadian relationship improvements [1]. - Cotton: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. - Jujube: Sell on rallies. New jujube production is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but short - term speculative risks are rising [1][14]. - Live Pigs: Sell on rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3034.29 yuan/ton, up 0.75% [2]. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.884 million tons, down 208,000 tons from last week; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, up 29,400 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil mill profit is in a loss state, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2325 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2505.26 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [5]. - Inventory: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons [6]. - Supply and Demand: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a state of destocking, but demand is in a seasonal off - peak [6]. Palm Oil - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9122 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 9148 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 575,700 tons, up 28,100 tons from last week [8]. - Supply and Demand: The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month, along with the approaching Indian festival reducing purchasing demand, lead to short - term fluctuations [1][8]. Cotton - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14803 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - Inventory: The national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8416 million tons, up 410,000 tons from the previous week; the Xinjiang commercial cotton inventory was 1.3582 million tons, up 410,000 tons [9]. - Supply and Demand: The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. Jujube - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashi general jujube was 8 yuan/kg, up 25% [13]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9103 tons, up 94 tons from the previous week, higher than the same period last year [14]. - Supply and Demand: New jujube production is expected to decline, and demand is gradually improving, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap [14]. Live Pigs - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 12175 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11970 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. - Inventory and Supply: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 38.3901 million heads, up 1.50% from the previous month; the planned slaughter volume in October increased by 5.48% month - on - month [15]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term supply pressure remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with attention to the demand during the winter pickling season [15][16].