国债周报：债期窄幅波动，上下空间有限-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the treasury bond futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the central value moving slightly lower in the second half of the week. The bullish factor was the expectation of loose monetary policy. Market hotspots included the progress of Sino - US game and the focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan in the Fourth Plenary Session. The Sino - US talks signaled a marginal easing, raising market risk appetite. The 15th Five - Year Plan will have multi - dimensional impacts on the bond market, and in the long - term, the interest rate center is expected to remain at a historically low level [4]. - In the short term, treasury bond futures are expected to continue to be strong under the support of risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, but attention should be paid to potential fluctuations. In the long term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge, deflation is likely to continue, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - The treasury bond futures market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week, with the central value dropping slightly in the second half. The expectation of loose monetary policy was a positive factor. Market trading hotspots were the Sino - US game and the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US talks eased tensions, and the 15th Five - Year Plan will affect the bond market in multiple ways, with long - term interest rates expected to stay low [4]. - Short - term, treasury bond futures may stay strong, but beware of fluctuations. Long - term, due to insufficient effective demand and potential deflation, the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and trends on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), and various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and different types of repurchase rates and SHIBOR [10][12][14]. - It also shows information on capital prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and various repurchase rates, as well as data on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates and excess reserve ratios [18][25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].