美国通胀低于预期，国内政策有望继续加码

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodities rebounded from low levels, with most varieties seeing an upturn, especially industrial products, while agricultural products showed a volatile trend. The reasons include the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and US sanctions leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, the increasing expectation of domestic policy intensification, and the weak US inflation data leading to a growing expectation of Fed rate cuts [3]. - The Sino-US trade relationship is at a critical stage with both tension and dialogue. The future direction depends on the ongoing consultations and political decisions in subsequent meetings between the two leaders [3]. - The US CPI in September was weaker than market expectations, and core inflation slowed month-on-month. Employment will be the main factor for the Fed to cut rates in the future, and inflation may not be an effective macro factor [3]. - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8% due to the slowdown in investment, consumption, and employment. Although China's actual economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, achieving the annual target requires a 4.4% growth in Q4. There is still room for incremental policies in Q4 [3]. - The PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged in October. Small and medium-sized banks are still under great pressure on net interest margins, and it is expected that the intensity of growth-stabilizing policies will increase in Q4, and there is still room for monetary policy easing [3]. - Risk appetite has increased, and commodities may rebound in the short term due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the opening of the window for incremental policy intensification, the weak US inflation data strengthening the Fed's rate cut prospects, and the uncertainty in geopolitical factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on October 24, and Sino-US officials held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 [3]. - The US CPI in September was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.3% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.4%); core CPI was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.2% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.3%) [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to September, real estate development investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year. To achieve the annual 5% growth target, Q4 GDP needs to grow by 4.4% [3][20]. - The PBOC maintained the one-year and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in October. Since October, small and medium-sized banks in various provinces and cities have been intensively lowering or preparing to lower deposit rates [3][23]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - On October 24, the开工率 of POY, PTA, and PTA in the polyester industry chain was 75%, 89%, and 74% respectively [26]. - The values of some other high-frequency data are also presented in the report, such as the开工率 of the polyester industry chain, blast furnace开工率, and the average wholesale prices of agricultural products [26][27][41].