烧碱周报：现货价格稳中有涨，盘面震荡偏弱-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows a mixed situation with reduced maintenance and increased production this week, but different regions have different load changes. The demand side is neutral, with weak non - aluminum demand and stable overall production after offsetting increases and decreases. The inventory is increasing, and the profit, valuation are on the bearish side. The macro - policy has a neutral impact, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.6 tons to 80 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 80.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6%. Different regions had different load changes, with Northeast, East, and South China seeing load declines, and Northwest and North China having slight increases [3]. - Demand: It is neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.02% from last week. The overall production of lithium hydroxide was stable [3]. - Inventory: It is bearish. The recent shipping pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 414,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.73% and a year - on - year increase of 37.78% [3]. - Basis: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - Profit: It is bearish. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 573 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.43% [3]. - Valuation: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3]. - Investment View: It is expected to oscillate. There is no obvious short - term driving force for the futures market, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There is no unilateral or arbitrage strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. The Shandong spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, the liquid chlorine price rose to 250 yuan/ton, the chlor - alkali profit remained high, and the factory operating load remained high. Demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn loose, with the spot price expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [32]. - Upstream Production: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [35]. - Main Production Area Output: In North China, maintenance increased, and output decreased [38]. - Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit: It decreased [39]. - Downstream Price: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - Alumina: The alumina start - up recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the start - up of new devices, the start - up rate of Henan alumina increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and stable year - on - year [54][65]. - Non - aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum start - up was stable but lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum sector entered the seasonal off - peak season, and start - up declined [66]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The start - up rate rebounded [74]. - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans from October to November, including full - or half - load maintenance and shutdown for a certain period [77].