蛋白数据日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supply: USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised down. Exports depend on Sino-US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week and 17.6% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 27.7%. Recently, there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean-producing areas, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking in November, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - Overall: Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillating trend has not changed. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and changes in South American weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Basis: On October 24, 2025, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 87, up 25; in Tianjin, it was 67, up 25; in Rizhao, it was 87, up 45. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 27, up 25; in Dongguan, it increased by 25; in Zhanjiang, it was 47, up 25; in Fangcheng, it was 27, up 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 64. The M1 - 5 spread was 165, down 3, and the M1 - RM1 spread was 475, up 26 [6]. - Spread: The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 608, up 9. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1.500, up 25, down 2 [7]. 3.2 Exchange Rate, Crushing Margin and Premium Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0847, unchanged. The crushing margin of imported soybeans was - 231.00 yuan/ton [7]. - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in different months in 2025 showed different trends, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans in some months was in the range of 210 - 420 cents per bushel [7]. 3.3 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - Supply - demand: In the supply side, the US soybean ending inventory and yield expectations may change, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate has increased, but the weather impact is limited. In the demand side, short - term livestock and poultry inventories are high, but breeding profits are in a loss state. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [7][8].