PVC周报（PVC）：宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation," which means the short - term PVC has no obvious driver and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has narrow adjustments, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has a slight increase affected by maintenance, and market demand remains flat. The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 76.57% (down 0.12% week - on - week and 0.67% year - on - year), with the calcium carbide method at 74.38% (down 0.34% week - on - week and 1.91% year - on - year) and the ethylene method at 81.64% (up 0.38% week - on - week and 1.68% year - on - year). The maintenance loss of production enterprises is 8.05 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons from the previous period [3]. - Demand: It is bearish. The downstream demand has a slight improvement, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 39.13% (up 4.04% week - on - week and 1.63% year - on - year), and the start - up rate of profile enterprises has increased by 0.54% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. Exports have declined, with the August 2025 export volume at 28.41 tons, the export average price at $616/ton, and the cumulative export from January to August at 257.52 tons [3]. - Inventory: It is neutral. As of October 23, the production enterprise factory inventory production days are 5.6 days (down 11.11% week - on - week), and the social inventory has increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 103.52 tons [3]. - Basis: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 52 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: It is bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have decreased week - on - week. The average profit of calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises is - 723 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of ethylene method is - 560 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week) [3]. - Valuation: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - Macro - policy: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is no strategy [3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support. The spot prices in different regions are provided, such as 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton for type 5 calcium carbide materials in East China [6]. - The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3. PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Raw Material and Production: The northwest calcium carbide price, coal medium - sized material price, and related production data such as capacity utilization rates and profits are presented in the charts. The main production area's production has rebounded after maintenance ended [17][39]. - Inventory: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The inventories in different regions and for different production methods are also shown in the charts [47]. - Downstream: The downstream average start - up rate, including pipe and profile start - up rates, as well as pre - sales volume, production and sales volume, and trader sales volume are presented in the charts [74][79]. - Export: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition [82][84].