原油周报（SC）：制裁引发供给担忧，国际油价强势反弹-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Sanctions have raised concerns about supply, causing international oil prices to rebound strongly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, and the geopolitical situation cools down. Supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. However, the easing of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs and the disturbances of European and American sanctions on supply concerns lead to a short - term volatile and slightly stronger performance of oil prices [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - long - term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans to increase production moderately, and the overall supply situation is bearish [3] - Demand (Medium - to - long - term): Different institutions have different predictions on demand, with EIA increasing the forecast, OPEC remaining unchanged, and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate forecast. Overall, it is rated as neutral [3] - Inventory (Short - term): US commercial crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, which is bullish for the market [3] - Industrial Policy (Medium - to - long - term): OPEC+ continues to increase production moderately, and the IEA believes that the market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply, which is bearish [3] - Geopolitical (Short - term): Sanctions on Russia by the EU, the UK, and the US may lead to a tightening of Russian oil supply and push up oil prices, which is bullish [3] - Macro - finance (Short - term): The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and China and the US will hold new economic and trade consultations, which is bullish [3] - Investment View: Oil prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term [3] - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: Sanctions have raised supply concerns, and international oil prices have rebounded strongly. As of October 24, WTI crude oil rose 7.32% week - on - week, Brent crude oil rose 5.84% week - on - week, and SC crude oil rose 7.47% week - on - week [6] - Month - to - month Spread and Internal - External Spread: Near - month spreads have strengthened, and internal - external spreads have rebounded and expanded [9] - Forward Curve: Near - month spreads have strengthened [21] - Crack Spread: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have declined [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. The US weekly crude oil production was 1362.9 million barrels per day, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [55][79] - Inventory: US commercial inventories decreased, Cushing inventories decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [80][90] - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates rose. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [101][110] - Refinery Profit: The gross profit of Chinese main - refineries declined, and gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [119] - Macro - finance: US Treasury yields declined slightly, and the US dollar index oscillated [131] - CFTC Position: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [140]