油脂周报（P、Y、OI）-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - Demand: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - Inventory: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - Macro and Policy: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - Investment View: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asia Weather: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - Weather and US Soybean Production Situation: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - Rapeseed - Related Situations: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].