宏观周报：国内前三季度GDP超目标增长，四中全会公布十五五规划-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed resilience in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP exceeding the annual target. However, domestic economic indicators have been slowing since June, indicating weak domestic demand. The government needs to further strengthen policies to support economic growth. Additionally, international trade frictions, such as China's export controls on rare earths and the US's proposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, may also pose challenges to the economy [3][16][17]. Summary by Directory I. Economic Situation - GDP: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, exceeding the annual growth target of about 5%. In the third quarter, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7% year-on-year [3]. - Industrial Added Value: In September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month. From January to September, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month [17]. - Fixed Asset Investment: From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Real estate development investment was 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [3]. - Social Retail Consumption: In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the growth rate was 4.5%. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value [3][17]. - Import and Export Data: In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In September, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus reached 90.5 billion US dollars [5]. - Unemployment Rate: In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. - PMI: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [6]. II. Financial Situation - Social Financing Scale: In September, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.8 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [34]. - Credit Data: In September, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The demand recovery rhythm was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [35]. - Money Supply: As of the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year-on-year, M1 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.5% year-on-year [9]. III. Price Related - CPI: In September, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 1.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month [40]. - PPI: In September, the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [40]. IV. Overseas Macro - US Government Shutdown: Since October 1, the US federal government has been shut down again. The shutdown has led to the suspension of economic data release and the stagnation of multiple public services, and its negative impact on the US economy is gradually emerging [45]. - US Inflation: In August, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [46]. - US Economic Indicators: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.0 [13]. V. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Exchange Rates: In October, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate may continue to fluctuate widely, with the range expected to be between 7.0 and 7.2. In the long term, the trend will depend on the synergy between the strength of China's economic recovery and the Fed's monetary policy path [54]. - Interest Rates: The report provides data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, but no in-depth analysis is provided [55][56].