沪铜周度报告：风险偏好转暖，铜价偏强运行-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weekend Sino - US trade negotiation sent out mild signals, forming a preliminary consensus on relevant issues, which improved the market risk appetite. The US CPI in September was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions in China boosted the market sentiment. Macro factors are generally favorable to copper prices. On the fundamental side, intensified disturbances in the mining end increased the expectation of copper ore shortage, supporting copper prices. Recently, the improvement in market risk appetite and the resonance of macro and micro factors jointly drove up the center of copper prices. Currently at the tail of risk pricing, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. The strategy is to expect a volatile and upward trend, and recommend buying on dips [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - Supply - side Data: The spot TC of copper concentrate decreased from - 40.97 to - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.22%. The market was quiet, and attention should be paid to the long - term negotiation results in November. The refined - scrap copper price difference increased from 3123 to 3438 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.07%. The southern crude copper processing fee decreased from 1000 to 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10%. The refined copper rod operating rate decreased from 63% to 62%, a decrease of 1.52%. The recycled copper rod operating rate increased from 18% to 19%, a rise of 2.19%. The wire and cable operating rate increased from 62% to 62.4%, a rise of 0.69% [7]. - Inventory Data: Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation in COMEX and domestic inventories, while LME inventory decreased. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased from 17.75 to 18.16 million tons, a rise of 2.31%. The bonded area inventory decreased from 9.77 to 9.28 million tons, a decrease of 5.02%. The total global inventory increased from 71.05 to 73.58 million tons, a rise of 3.57% [7]. - Profit Data: The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) decreased from - 3453 to - 4992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.56%. The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term) decreased from - 106 to - 1559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1368.14%. The import profit increased from - 601 to - 581 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.30% [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - Price and Spread: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper month - to - three - month spread, sulfuric acid price, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount over multiple years [12][15][17]. - Cost and Profit: It shows the electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term) over multiple years [19][20]. - Supply: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate import volume, scrap copper import volume, crude copper import volume, electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper import volume, and total electrolytic copper supply are provided, including monthly and cumulative data and their changes over multiple years [26][30]. - Demand: - Copper Rod - Cable: Information on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, copper rod wire raw material inventory, copper rod wire finished product inventory ratio, and the operating rate of wire and cable production (weekly, monthly) is given [31]. - Cable Terminal - Power Grid: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amount, cumulative and monthly power source investment completion amount, and their changes over multiple years are presented [33]. - Copper Tube - Air Conditioner: Information on the monthly operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, monthly household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume, and their changes over multiple years are provided [42]. - Copper Plate - Strip: Data on the monthly operating rate of copper plate - strip, copper plate - strip raw material inventory, and copper plate - strip raw material inventory ratio, and their changes over multiple years are presented [44]. - Terminal - Automobile: Information on monthly automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales, and their changes over multiple years are provided [50]. - Brass Rod - Real Estate: Data on the monthly operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area, and their changes over multiple years are presented [53]. - Inventory: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, global refined copper inventory, and LME cancelled warrants and their proportions over multiple years are provided [58]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32%, showing a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1814.84 lots [69].