籽棉价格小幅抬升，郑棉期价延续偏强走势关注中美贸易谈判进度，短期棉价或震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of cottonseed has slightly increased, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has continued to be strong. In the short - term, the cotton price may fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. - As Zhengzhou cotton rebounds, the price of pure cotton yarn has also slightly followed up, but the downstream demand restricts the follow - up range. The short - term price of cotton yarn is likely to remain stable. The upper limit of Zhengzhou cotton has hedging pressure, and the lower limit has cost support, so it is likely to fluctuate in the short term [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - One - week Data Overview: As of October 24, the CRB commodity price index closed at 302.98 points, up 9.63 points from October 17. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract closed at 13,540 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from October 17, with an increase of 4,442 lots in positions to 591,000 lots. Spot prices of some cotton - related products also changed slightly [2][10][11]. - Imported Cotton Quotations: The CNF quotations of imported cotton from the US and Brazil at the main ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and that of Brazil M decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation - Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends: On October 24, the prices of raw materials showed mixed changes compared with October 17. The price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the prices of CCI3128 and Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased [14][15]. - Cotton Yarn Price Trends: On October 24, the prices of domestic and imported cotton yarns remained stable compared with October 17. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased, and the price difference between domestic cotton spot and imported cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also decreased [18][21][24]. - Comparison of Domestic and International Cotton Prices: On October 24, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,803 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty decreased compared with October 17. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty increased [27]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 17 [33]. - Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton's Futures - Spot Price Difference: On October 24, the difference between Zhengzhou cotton's futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 17 [35]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis: - Macro - aspect: The US core CPI growth rate slowed down in September, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates. China's GDP growth rate in the third quarter was the slowest this year, but incremental policies were expected to be introduced later [36]. - Supply - side: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. The cotton inspection volume was about 70,000 tons per day. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 67.9% as of October 20, 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year [37]. - Downstream Market: As of October 15, the textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased, while the yarn and fabric inventories increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the spinning mills mainly adopted the strategies of selling at market prices and producing on demand [38]. - Technical Analysis: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract turned strong, with the MACD green column turning red and the KDJ and DIFF - DEA indicators about to form golden crosses [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - US Cotton Export Dynamics: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 54% compared with the previous week, and the shipment increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton increased compared with the previous week but decreased compared with the average of the recent four weeks [47]. - ICE Cotton Futures Analysis: On October 24, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. The technical indicators turned strong, with the KDJ indicator about to form a golden cross [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - Upstream cotton enterprises can hedge risks by calculating the cost of lint cotton based on the purchase price of cottonseed and hedging on the futures market or buying put options [52]. - Downstream spinning mills can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [52].