CR Sanjiu(SZ:000999) HTSC·2025-10-27 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported revenue of 21.99 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.35 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 11% increase in revenue but a 21% decline in net profit [1]. - The integration of Tian Shi Li is progressing smoothly, with expectations for synergy benefits and alignment with the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. - The company's CHC business shows strong operational resilience due to brand advantages and channel support, while the prescription drug business is expected to stabilize after absorbing the impact of centralized procurement [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.18 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 4% to 540 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 53.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow was 23.35 billion yuan, representing 106% of its revenue, indicating strong cash flow stability [3]. Business Segments - The respiratory category experienced a decline in revenue due to a drop in disease incidence, but the company is actively stocking up and expanding its product line [2]. - Other OTC categories, such as skin and gastrointestinal products, maintained steady growth despite industry pressures [2]. - The prescription drug segment is expected to perform steadily as it adapts to centralized procurement pressures, focusing on clinical value and a mix of self-research and business development [2]. Strategic Developments - The integration of Tian Shi Li is expected to enhance channel collaboration and cost optimization, contributing to a differentiated competitive advantage in the market [4]. - The company aims to leverage synergies with Huazhong Sanjiu and Kunming Pharmaceutical Group to strengthen its market position [4]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.50 billion, 3.97 billion, and 4.48 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 4%, 14%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively [5][10]. - The target price for the company is set at 35.67 yuan, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [5].