棉花（CF）：棉市区间震荡，关注中美谈判

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", indicating a short - term outlook of the market moving within a range [3]. Core View of the Report - The short - term demand side of the cotton market performs averagely, and the supply side maintains a loose pattern, so the cotton futures market may experience range - bound oscillations. Influencing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., present different driving forces. The supply is short - term bearish and long - term bullish; demand, profit, and valuation are bullish; inventory is bearish; and the impact of basis/spread and macro - policy is neutral [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Currently in the period of concentrated processing and inspection of new cotton, the selling pressure on the spot market persists. Market expectations include a possible reduction in the cotton target direct subsidy price in the next three years in the Central No. 1 Document in January - February 2026, a possible decrease in the planting area in March 2026, and a seasonal speculation window for domestic production area weather in April 2026 [3]. - Demand: Bullish. Downstream yarn mills have low raw material inventories and strong restocking intentions. Seasonal pre - holiday restocking from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2026 may increase demand. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, which is beneficial for mill operations and restocking [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. As new cotton is massively listed, inventory gradually accumulates [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis for pre - sold new cotton delivered before the end of January 2026 is 678, and the spread between Zhengzhou Cotton's January and May contracts fluctuates around - 50 this week [3]. - Profit: Bullish. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, with positive cash - flow profits in Xinjiang and even inland areas, which encourages mill operations and restocking [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, there may be a restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of improved liquidity [3]. - Investment View: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is abundant, so the market may move within a range [3]. - Trading Strategy: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to monitor include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - Production: The report presents historical data on national and Xinjiang cotton production from 2013 - 2025 [5][6]. - Inventory: It includes data on national and Xinjiang commercial inventories, national cotton bonded - area commercial inventories, national industrial inventories, and mid - stream inventories (showing seasonal destocking of finished products). Mid - stream factory loads show a slow recovery in operation rates, and mid - stream yarn mills are currently in a loss - making situation. It also provides data on domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports and US cotton's weekly signing and shipment volumes, with US cotton's exports to China showing sporadic signing and zero shipments [9][14][22][27][32][41]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - Basis and Spread: Zhengzhou Cotton's basis is oscillating at a high level, and the spreads between different contracts are presented. The US cotton's monthly spread shows a Deep Contango pattern [45][64]. - Position: Data on Zhengzhou Cotton's contract positions and the net long positions of managed funds in US cotton futures and options are provided [53][59].