钢矿周度报告：需求持续性存疑，钢材震荡运行-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated. The supply structure improved, with stable blast - furnace operation and potential decline in EAF production. Demand showed an increase in building materials and a pattern of weak domestic and strong foreign demand for plates. Inventory was decreasing, but the demand's sustainability was uncertain. The strategy is for conservative investors to stay on the sidelines and consider shorting the rebar - iron ore ratio [3]. - For iron ore, the spot price rose slightly, and the futures price remained stable. The supply structure also improved, with increased global shipments and tightened near - term supply due to reduced arrivals. Demand was resilient despite a slight decrease in hot - metal production. Inventory continued to accumulate, and the market sentiment was bearish due to potential supply increases from the Simandou project. Aggressive investors can consider short - selling with a light position and watch for opportunities to add positions due to favorable policies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Price - The Shanghai rebar spot price fluctuated, with the rebar 01 contract rising 9 to close at 3046. The spot price in East China was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week [10]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price also fluctuated [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operation of 247 steel mills in China was basically stable. The blast - furnace operating rate was 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot - metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [13]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 52.3%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected that the EAF production will decline slightly [21]. - The supply of five major steel products was 865.32 tons, up 8.37 tons week - on - week. Rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly by 0.62 tons [24]. 3.1.3 Demand - The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 892.73 tons, up 2.2% week - on - week. Building materials consumption increased by 4.4%, and plate consumption increased by 1.1%. The demand for building steel increased due to faster construction progress, but there may be a weakening pressure in the off - season [27]. - For hot - rolled coils, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was strong. After the National Day, the demand for derivatives such as cold - rolled and galvanized coils was weak, but overseas orders were still strong [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, strengthening cost support. The average profit of 76 independent EAF building steel mills was - 151 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 55 yuan/ton [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar mill inventory was basically flat, with a cumulative decrease of 0.01 tons. Social inventory decreased by 18.93 tons week - on - week [39]. - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory decreased by 0.5 tons, and social inventory decreased by 3.77 tons [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 01 contract basis was 144, narrowing 29 from last week. The hot - rolled coil 01 basis was 30, narrowing 16 from last week. The basis of both products showed a narrowing trend [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread - The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 63, with the inversion deepening by 7. The hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 15, with the inversion narrowing by 5. Both products basically maintained an inverted level [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened significantly, from 167 to 204 for the main contracts. The spot spread in Shanghai widened from 40 to 90, mainly due to the more obvious rebound of hot - rolled coil spot prices [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore futures price fluctuated, with the 01 contract closing flat at 771. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 3 to 781 yuan/ton [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, reaching 3333.5 tons. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 1960.2 tons, and from Brazil were 833.7 tons. The arrivals at 47 ports were 2676.3 tons, down 468 tons week - on - week [60][66]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 239.9 tons, down 1.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average spot trading volume at major Chinese ports was 125.3 tons, up 15.7 tons week - on - week [69][73]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 15109.49 tons, up 148 tons week - on - week, lower than the same period last year [76]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - As of September 29, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 9079.2 tons, up 96 tons week - on - week [79]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to Qingdao was 23.695 dollars, down 0.87 dollars week - on - week. The freight from Australia to Qingdao was 10.405 dollars, down 0.08 dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The iron ore 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, down 0.5 week - on - week. The 01 contract basis was 53, widening 4 week - on - week [85]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Keep holding short positions in iron ore futures - Consider shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01 for arbitrage - Pay attention to the opportunity of the hot - rolled coil 01 basis widening and increase short positions on the futures market appropriately. No need to focus on the iron ore 01 basis widening as the upside is limited [4]