供需宽松，造纸板块底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The paper - making sector is oscillating at the bottom due to loose supply and demand. Pulp shows a pattern of "weak softwood and stable hardwood", and double - offset paper remains in a low - level stalemate in the short term [1][9]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis: Pulp has a "high inventory + weak demand" situation, with softwood pulp under pressure and hardwood pulp relatively stable. Double - offset paper has loose supply and demand, with price close to cash cost and limited supply increase, but weak social demand [9]. - Strategies: - Unilateral: For SP2501, wait and see; if port inventory drops below 2 million tons and basis strengthens, go long. For OP2501, mainly wait and see, and short against the lower edge of the spot price [8]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [8]. - Options: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4300 for OP options [8]. Part 2: Core Logic Analysis - Pulp: The supply - demand contradiction of softwood is prominent, and the spot price is suppressed. Hardwood is relatively resistant to decline but has limited upside space due to high inventory, maintaining a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" pattern [9]. - Double - offset paper: The price is close to cash cost, and the factory's willingness to hold prices is strong. However, due to weak social demand and high inventory, it is in a low - level stalemate in the short term [9]. Part 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply and Inventory: - Double - offset paper: Production is 20.7 million tons (+2.0%), capacity utilization is 53.9% (+0.9pct), and enterprise inventory is 133.1 million tons (+1.2%). Production increased, but demand was weak, and inventory continued to rise [9][20]. - Coated paper: Production is 8.5 million tons (+7.6%), capacity utilization is 63.1% (+4.8pct), and enterprise inventory is 36.8 million tons (+1.7%). Supply increased significantly, but demand was limited, and inventory rebounded slightly [23][28]. - Domestic pulp: The sample production of hardwood pulp is 23.5 million tons, and the weekly average production profit is about 110 yuan/ton (+0.9%). The overall supply increased slightly, and the profit rebounded slightly [32]. - Wood pulp: The total inventory of five major ports is 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (-0.9%). The domestic chemimechanical pulp production profit is 151 yuan/ton (-4.4%) [35]. - White cardboard: Production is 36.0 million tons (+4.35%), capacity utilization is 79.65% (+3.32pct), and factory inventory is 1.08 million tons (+0.47%). Supply recovered rapidly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [41]. - Price: - Double - offset paper: The average ex - factory price is 4643 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 244 yuan/ton [9]. - Coated paper: The average enterprise - inclusive tax price is 4975 yuan/ton, and the price is weakly stable [51]. - Pulp: Softwood pulp in Shandong is 5444 yuan/ton (-1.22%), hardwood pulp is 4257 yuan/ton (+0.16%), natural pulp is 4864 yuan/ton (+0.29%), and chemimechanical pulp is 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [57].