快递量持续较快增长，反内卷开启盈利修复：2026年快递行业年度策略

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" for companies that are expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 15% [82] - The rating is "Cautious Increase" for companies expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 5% to 15% [82] - The rating is "Neutral" for companies expected to perform within -5% to 5% of the CSI 300 index [82] Core Insights - The express delivery business volume is projected to reach 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The market share of major express companies shows a gradual increase, with Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong leading the market [19][20] - The average single package value has shown fluctuations, impacting revenue growth across the industry [9][41] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The revenue from the express delivery sector is also projected to increase, with a notable correlation to the business volume growth [41] Market Share - The market share of major players like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong is expected to evolve, with Zhongtong showing a steady increase in market presence [19][20] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on maintaining market share while navigating pricing pressures [19][20] Profitability Metrics - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit estimates for major companies indicating a positive trend in the coming years [53] - The net profit elasticity for Zhongtong is projected to be around 9% to 52% over the forecast period, indicating strong growth potential [53] Pricing Trends - The average single ticket price has shown a slight increase, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amidst rising operational costs [41][50] - The pricing strategy will be essential for companies to sustain margins while competing in a price-sensitive market [41][50]