铅周报：关注资金面影响铅价或冲高回落-20251027

Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - Trading Logic and Strategy - Industry Supply and Demand - Supply: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - Smelting: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - Consumption: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - Inventory: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [4] - Other Sub - sections - 1.2 Futures Price: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - 1.3 Price Spread: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - 1.4 Inventory Data: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - 1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - 2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - 3.1 Global Refined Lead - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - 4.1 Lead - Acid Battery - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - 4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - 4.3 Automobile - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - 4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]