Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for investment in the textile manufacturing industry, with specific buy recommendations for Shenzhou International (02313.HK), Yuanyuan Group (00551.HK), and Huali Group (300979.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The global textile and apparel export value is approximately $900 billion, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2020 to 2024. The export value is projected to reach $882.7 billion by 2024 [2][16]. - The apparel manufacturing industry is experiencing a trend of vertical integration, with some mid-to-large companies extending upstream into weaving and dyeing processes, while the footwear industry remains more concentrated in competition [3][4]. - The report highlights that the sportswear manufacturing sector has a low concentration level, with vertical integration becoming a trend. Shenzhou International is identified as the largest sports knitwear manufacturer globally, with a production capacity of 550 million garments and revenue of 28.7 billion yuan in 2024 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing Overview - The global textile and apparel export value is around $900 billion, with the EU, the US, and Japan being the top three importers. The CAGR from 1989 to 2000 was 5.6%, while from 2014 to 2020, it slowed to -0.3% due to inventory destocking and pandemic impacts [16][19]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing industry is shifting globally, with China's export share declining to 34% in 2023 [19][20]. Apparel Manufacturing Industry - The apparel manufacturing supply chain includes six main areas: fiber, spinning, weaving, dyeing, garment making, and retail. The trend is towards vertical integration, enhancing product development capabilities [36]. - Major apparel manufacturers have high customer concentration, with the largest customer accounting for about 30% of revenue for many companies [50][52]. - The report indicates that overseas production capacity is expanding, with Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia being the primary locations for apparel manufacturing [55]. Footwear Manufacturing Industry - The footwear manufacturing industry has a higher concentration level, with leading companies like Yuanyuan Group dominating the market. In 2024, Yuanyuan Group is expected to produce 255 million pairs of shoes, generating revenue of $5.621 billion [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that the competition in the footwear sector is more concentrated compared to apparel, with fewer suppliers for footwear than for apparel [3][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Shenzhou International due to its lower exposure to the US market and strong overseas fabric production capacity, which exceeds 50% [9]. - Yuanyuan Group is recommended for its strong upstream material control and potential for profit recovery as production capacity increases [9]. - Huali Group is noted for its average exposure to the US market and optimistic sales outlook due to new client acquisitions [9].
关税风险基本落地，纺织制造龙头有望迎来重估