Report Industry Investment Rating - Polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polysilicon, the supply slightly exceeds demand in October, with a small inventory build - up. The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company. However, the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - For industrial silicon, the current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply and demand: In October, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. The polysilicon output in October is about 130,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up. The current polysilicon inventory is about 500,000 tons, including about 250,000 tons in upstream inventory, about 200,000 tons in downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons in warehouse receipts and trader inventory [5]. - Trading logic: The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company, but the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. There is buying power for warehouse receipts below 50000 in the 11 contract. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - Trading strategy: Hold long positions for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy; buy call options [6]. Industrial silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6%. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [7][15][26]. - Trading logic: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market review: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8920 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton to varying degrees [12]. - Downstream demand data: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6% [15]. - Industrial silicon output: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The number of open furnaces decreased by 4 this week. Yunnan and Sichuan silicon plants may shut down furnaces on a large scale at the end of the month, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon will start to decrease next week [26]. - Industrial silicon inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [27]. - Related product prices: The spot price of industrial silicon weakened this week. The prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly, and the operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. The raw material prices remained stable [33][37][46][49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trend: This week, the spot price of polysilicon increased. The prices of some models of silicon wafers, batteries, and some components decreased [54][60][64]. - Component fundamentals: Currently, domestic component orders are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in October decreased slightly to 46GW compared with September [73]. - Battery fundamentals: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 7.1GW, which is moderate. With the downward adjustment of the component production schedule in October, the battery production schedule increased to 56GW [77]. - Silicon wafer fundamentals: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output of silicon wafers increased to 14.73GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 18.47GW. The silicon wafer production schedule in October increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September [82]. - Polysilicon fundamentals: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 258,000 tons. It is expected that the polysilicon output in October will be about 130,000 tons. The Southwest production capacity of Tongwei Co., Ltd. has started to reduce the load, and it is expected that the output in November will decrease by 20,000 tons. There are also rumors of potential production cuts at its Inner Mongolia base, which may affect the output by 4000 - 5000 tons [89].
工业硅：多单持有，工业硅：逢低买入
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-27 08:21