Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-27 08:40Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - At the end of the month, supply slows down, demand picks up, and with the entry of secondary fattening, prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, price rebounds restrict the sustainability of secondary fattening, and secondary fattening will delay supply. Coupled with the expected supply pressure in the fourth quarter, the upside space in the medium term is limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the position of the main contract is 109,501 lots, down 2,896 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -31,600 lots, down 1,757 lots [2] Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,300 yuan/ton, 12,400 yuan/ton, and 12,100 yuan/ton respectively, all up 400 yuan/ton; the main basis of live pigs is -30 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year-on-year CPI is -0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,242.55 yuan/ton, down 6.08 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 874.48, down 6.26; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is -289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is -185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2] Industry News - On October 27, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs in key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,197 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. At the supply end, the supply of large - scale farms may slow down at the end of the month, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, reducing the supply pressure. In the second - fattening aspect, the concentrated entry of second - fattening for replenishment supports the stabilization of the spot market price, but the sustainability of entry needs to be observed. At the demand end, with the continuous decline in temperature, terminal demand has increased, and some slaughtering enterprises have actively carried out warehousing operations, resulting in a continuous marginal improvement in demand [2] Technical Analysis - The live pig 2601 contract opened higher and closed up 1.69%, testing the pressure of the previous gap [2]