Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-27 08:39Report Overview - The report is an industrial daily for the aluminum industry dated October 27, 2025, covering various aspects of the aluminum market including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum market shows different trends in different segments. Alumina may see supply reduction and slight demand increase, supporting its price; electrolytic aluminum may experience a small increase in supply and strong consumption with inventory reduction; cast aluminum may be in a tight supply - demand balance with inventory reduction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 311,269 lots, up 9,063 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,856.5 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 473,125 tons, down 4,550 tons [2] - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 372,484 lots, down 5,950 lots [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 6,366 lots [2] Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 21,160 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 3.19 dollars/ton, down 5.02 dollars [2] - Alumina Spot: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina basis was - 34 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Alumina: The national alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points; the production was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2] - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; exports were 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] Industry Situation - Aluminum Production: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.8 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons [2] - Aluminum Trade: The import of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; exports were 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 52 million tons, down 1 million tons; exports of aluminum alloy were 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - Automobile Production: The monthly automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2] - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2] Option Situation - Aluminum Options: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 8.59%, up 0.20 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.77%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.97%, up 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, down 0.0391 [2] Industry News - Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation: Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and trade [2] - Financial Report: The central bank governor reported on financial work, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening financial supervision [2] - US CPI Data: The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [2] - 15th Five - Year Plan: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" issues, and is expected to bring new market space and investment demand [2] Alumina View Summary - Market Trend: The alumina main contract showed a volatile trend, with a decrease in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - Fundamentals: Supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits; demand may be slightly boosted by high - level electrolytic aluminum production and positive macro expectations; prices may be supported [2] - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - Operation Suggestion: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - Market Trend: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened low and strengthened, with an increase in holding volume, spot discount, and weakening basis [2] - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly due to increased smelting profits; demand may be strong due to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and traditional peak season; inventory is decreasing; the option market is bullish [2] - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly expanding red bars [2] - Operation Suggestion: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - Market Trend: The cast aluminum main contract was slightly stronger in a volatile market, with a decrease in holding volume, spot premium, and weakening basis [2] - Fundamentals: Supply may be limited by tight raw material supply; demand is resilient due to positive macro expectations and the peak season; inventory is decreasing slightly [2] - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 axis with slightly converging green bars [2] - Operation Suggestion: Light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]