ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-27 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaxin Cement is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with the successful implementation of the Nigeria project expected to contribute positively to future earnings [6] - Domestic profitability is steadily recovering, while overseas expansion is anticipated to accelerate [6] - The company has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 121% [6] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 2,079 million [1] - Market price: 20.66 CNY [1] - Market capitalization: 42,952.05 million CNY [1] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 33,757 million CNY, with a growth rate of 11% [4] - Net profit forecast for 2025E: 2,990 million CNY, with a growth rate of 24% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E: 1.44 CNY [4] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025: 32.27 billion CNY [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.34 CNY per share, totaling 7.06 billion CNY [6] Profitability and Growth - The company achieved a net profit of 20.04 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.01% [6] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 89.86 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.95% [6] - The company expects to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 29.90 billion CNY for 2025, 39.01 billion CNY for 2026, and 44.87 billion CNY for 2027 [6] Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a historical average of around 39.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6] - The cash flow from operating activities remains robust, indicating strong operational efficiency [6]