Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to the weak fundamentals of oils and fats and the relatively weak macro - environment, oils and fats will fluctuate weakly. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, its price mainly follows the overall trend of oils and fats, and the basis and monthly spread of soybean oil are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited. US soybean oil is oscillating at a low level, and the bottom support may be at 48 cents per pound. - In the medium term, if the biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are implemented smoothly and the macro - environment improves, oils and fats have great potential for an upward trend and may show an oscillating upward movement, and soybean oil is also expected to follow the upward trend [37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Smooth Sino - US Negotiations, US Soybeans Expected to Be Exported to China - On October 26, the Sino - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, and China would purchase a large amount of US soybeans. The CBOT soybean series rose significantly on that day, while the domestic soybean series showed limited movements. - Currently, the US has an average tariff of 57.6% on China, and China has an average tariff of 32.6% on the US, with a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. If the two sides cancel reciprocal tariffs, China's tariff on US soybeans may be reduced to 13%, and if all previously imposed tariffs are cancelled, it could return to 3%. However, even at a 3% tariff, there is no crushing profit for near - term shipments in China this year. Whether China will purchase US soybeans in Q1 next year depends on tariff adjustments and CNF prices. - If a large - scale US soybean purchase agreement is reached, China will gradually purchase US soybeans at appropriate times and prices in the future. Although short - term crushing profit is not suitable, the supply expectation will be looser, and the soybean supply gap in Q1 next year may be repaired [3][4]. 2. India's Massive Increase in Soybean Oil Imports, Inflection Point of Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory Approaching - Since August this year, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Brazil's domestic crushing volume this year is lower than last year but slightly higher than the 5 - year average, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in the future. From January to August, Brazil's soybean oil consumption was lower than last year, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in cumulative consumption, while the export volume increased by 15% year - on - year, with a 54% increase in exports to India, accounting for 70% of total exports. As of August, Brazil's soybean oil inventory was 520,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period. Argentina's exports of soybean oil to India increased by 11% year - on - year, and as of early September, its inventory was 220,000 tons, at a low level in the same period. The combined inventory of Brazil and Argentina is above the 5 - year average and higher than last year [10]. - Due to the low international soybean - palm oil price difference this year, India's import profit of soybean oil has increased, leading to a significant increase in imports, with a 42% year - on - year increase in cumulative imports in the 24/25 fiscal year as of September, approaching 4.4 million tons. It is expected that imports in October will remain at a relatively high level in the same period, and the annual imports may reach 4.8 million tons, meeting the market expectation of 4.4 - 4.9 million tons. The market also expects that India's edible oil imports will increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with a limited year - on - year increase in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, which is beneficial to soybean oil prices [19]. - As of September 29, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, and the market expects it to exceed 70%. Brazil's soybean sowing is faster than in previous years, with a sowing rate of 21.7% as of October 18, compared with 17.6% in the same period last year. The new - crop planting area is expected to increase, and the general expectation for the 2025/26 production is 175 - 179 million tons. - Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons or 3.25% from the previous week. The soybean arrival peak has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decline slightly, with an inflection point likely to occur at the end of October. However, the overall supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, and the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited [26]. 3. Positive Expectation of Oils and Fats Biodiesel Policy, Potential Upward Momentum Still Exists - In the US biodiesel sector, in June this year, the EPA proposed to increase the mandatory blending of biomass diesel in the US in 2026 to 5.61 billion gallons, much higher than the previous market expectation of 4.65 - 5.25 billion gallons, an increase of 2.26 billion gallons compared to 2025. If calculated based on this blending volume, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may exceed 7.4 million tons, with an increase of 1.4 - 1.5 million tons. In August, the EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications for SRE, with a total exemption of about 5.34 billion gallons of RINs from 2016 - 2024, but only the exemption quotas from 2023 - 2024 have actual compliance value. In September, the EPA proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted under the SRE plan to large refineries. Although the final RVO and SRE plans are uncertain, it is certain that the US biodiesel demand will increase next year, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [30]. - In Brazil, the National Energy Policy Council has increased the biodiesel blending ratio from 12% to 14% since March 2024 and plans to increase it by 1% annually. Originally, the B16 policy was expected to be implemented in March next year, which is estimated to bring an increase of 550,000 - 700,000 tons in biodiesel consumption and about 400,000 - 500,000 tons in soybean oil consumption. However, the Brazilian government may postpone the implementation of the B16 policy due to incomplete feasibility studies. As of August, the biodiesel blending rate was about 15.7%, slightly exceeding the B15 target. The price difference between biodiesel and diesel is narrowing but still negative, which means there is still profit in biodiesel production. Even if the B16 policy is postponed, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may still increase [31][32].
专题报告：中美谈判顺利，豆油后期走势分析
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-27 08:51