有色金属周报：碳酸锂：冲高回落，风险上升-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is to sell high, with an operating range of 71,000 - 85,000. Supply expectations are volatile, but actual production continues to grow. After the price increase, downstream purchasing is weak, inventory - building slows down, and power demand may peak. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [5][89] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 4.96%. Trading volume reached 1.85 million lots (+440,000), and open interest reached 431,200 lots (+272,200). The basis was at a discount of 4,120 yuan/ton [6][9] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; lithium mica production was 8,150 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2%. Lithium concentrate imports reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China rose to 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. In September, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [30][32] Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. In September, lithium hydroxide exports were 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 86,303 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In October, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 329,270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 58% [42] Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 17,766 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [43] Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In September, exports increased slightly [52] Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In October, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [53] Electrolyte - In October, electrolyte production was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30%. In September, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In September, power battery production was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. Power battery installation volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4% [64] New Energy Vehicles - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. Sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [67] Energy Storage - In October, energy - storage battery production was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. In September, the energy - storage winning bid power scale was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [72] Consumer Electronics - In September, China's smartphone production was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. China's micro - computer production was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [75] 1.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rose. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 35 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 115 yuan/ton [80] 1.6 Inventory - Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 602 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 2,460 tons, and other inventory increased by 770 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 1,529 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 629 tons [85][86] 1.7 Market Outlook - The strategy is to sell high, with an operating range of 71,000 - 85,000. Supply expectations are volatile, but actual production continues to grow. After the price increase, downstream purchasing is weak, inventory - building slows down, and power demand may peak. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [89]