股债跷跷板再度来袭，震荡略偏空

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, influenced by the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity factors. The operation of bond futures is more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may form a slightly bearish volatile pattern under the action of the stock - bond seesaw [2][30] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it is still in a high - level volatile trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline of the long - term high - level volatility and has a demand for a volatile rebound. The combination of liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw logic increases the difficulty of bond market operation [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On October 27, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term, and the net MLF injection this month will reach 200 billion yuan, which is the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF renewal [13] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [15] - In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [15][16] - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - In September, the overall economic data showed that the endogenous driving force of the economy was strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy was weakened. If counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be continuously bearish for the bond market [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicated that economic activities had increased. The year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing increased slightly, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [20] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, and the cost of funds decreased. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy depends on domestic demand. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27 to maintain liquidity [23] 3.4 Supply - demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones this year. The issuance of special bonds and special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [25] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term volatile range and declined, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, and the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the successful conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the A - share market broke through the volatile range and rose. The economic data in September showed that the downward pressure on the economy increased, and counter - cyclical regulation may continue to increase. The bond market operation is difficult under the combined action of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a slightly bearish volatile pattern [30]