显微镜下的中国经济（2025年第40期）：10月经济数据怎么看？

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]