双焦期货周度报告：供应扰动不断，提涨即将落地-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal prices continued to rise, with most increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second round of price hikes for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. However, due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. - Supply disruptions persist. In Wuhai, most open - pit mines have shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring, and stricter environmental inspections have restricted coal transportation, reducing regional supply. In addition, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen have shut down due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production [2]. - On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output this week was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons compared to last week but still at a high level. On Friday, some steel mills planned to accept the second - round coke price increase, which will be implemented starting next week. There is also an expectation of further coke price increases next week, so the rigid demand for coking coal remains in the short term [2]. - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are showing a strong performance. With limited coal production growth and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Coking coal prices in the domestic market continued to rise, with most increases in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second - round price increase for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, aiming to achieve significant results in high - quality development, greatly improve the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, make new breakthroughs in all - around deepening of reforms, significantly enhance social civilization, continuously improve people's living standards, make new major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthen national security [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It stated that in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region, new or expanded iron and steel smelting projects outside compliant industrial parks are prohibited. In key areas, the total steel production capacity must not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas or between different key areas is prohibited. Provinces with clear steel production capacity control targets cannot accept steel production capacity transferred from other regions. The iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios in each province should be no less than 1.5:1. For compliant production capacity newly obtained through mergers and acquisitions after June 1, 2021, the replacement ratios should be no less than 1.25:1 [6]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The growth rates in the first, second, and third quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [7]. - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August. Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months. Real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1.0 percentage point compared to January - August. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% [7]. - In September, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.58 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.3%. From January to September, the total automobile production was 24.048 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: In Shanxi, more coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to factors such as working - face relocation, safety, and maintenance. In Inner Mongolia's Wuhai area, coal production has declined due to environmental protection, further tightening the supply from production areas [30]. - Demand side: Coke production continued to decline slightly, but downstream and intermediate sectors were actively purchasing. Coal mines had good order intake, with continuous inventory reduction at upstream coal mines and a large number of pre - sale orders [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are strong. With limited growth in coal production and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the short term, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [2][30].