利润高增可持续性几何？

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, following an increase of 20.4% in August[1] - The profit growth rate shows a marginal slowdown when adjusted for low base effects, decreasing from -0.5% in August to -5.8% in September on a two-year average compound growth basis[1] - The pressure on profit growth is expected to increase in the fourth quarter as the benefits from low base effects diminish[1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" efforts have shown positive effects, with key industry price indicators rising and profit improving in the third quarter[2] - However, more industries returned to a state of severe "involution" in September, indicating a need for stronger and sustained "anti-involution" measures[2] - The current profit structure is supported by volume, but this is not favorable for long-term profit sustainability, as the relationship of "volume up, price down" was observed in September[2] Group 3: Enterprise Profitability - State-owned enterprises' profitability weakened, with profit growth rates of -15.2% for state-owned, -7.1% for joint-stock, -3.0% for private, and -1.1% for foreign enterprises when considering two-year average compound growth[2] - The decline in state-owned enterprise profits is attributed to the diminishing impact of previous "anti-involution" measures[2] Group 4: Risk Factors - Future risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and unforeseen fluctuations in exports[2]